As it so happens, none of the major investment banks really view this weekend’s election results out of Greece as having much impact on whether the country will exit the eurozone or not.Citi leaves their odds of a Greek exit between 50 and 75 percent over the next 12-18 months. Jurgen Michels wrote earlier today:
While the outcome of the election, and the likely agreement on an ND-led government has reduced the risk of an exit in the very near term, with the large role of SYRIZA in Parliament and its power to organize protest against further austerity measures and far-reaching structural reforms on the streets, it looks to us unlikely that Greece will be able to fulfill only slightly amended conditions of the MoU.
Morgan Stanley still has the chances that Greece leaves the euro at 35 percent over the next 12-18 months, but that could change. Cross-asset strategist Greg Peters writes in a note today: